ANALYSIS OF CHANGE OF REGIME OF BNDES. IMPACTS OF PUBLIC SECTOR OVER THE PRIVATE INVESTMENTS.

Abstract

As soon as BNDES (State Development Bank) change its interest rate calculation methodology, an econometric analysis with panel data is be made, through an endogeneity relationship between the variables investment (private), BNDES loans and market issuance of shares), with the purpose to estimate the impact of the change in interest methodology as early as 2016. The impact on the endogenous variables was estimated and a forecast was made of borrowing costs as well as of private investment. The results corroborate the hypothesis that the BNDES does not encourage new investments, serving only as an alternative financing, which would not justify National Treasury subsidies for new loans. This opens way´s for fiscal adjustment but guaranteeing important social programs such as Bolsa Família.