PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS WITH SOCIAL ACTORS: HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

In order to discuss opportunities and threats, strengths and weaknesses related to the dynamism of a given region, it is necessary to study scenarios considering a human perspective. Thus, the present research aims to generate and analyze prospective scenarios for the Municipality of Marília until 2027 from the perspective of social actors. To carry out this research, the Grumbach Method will be used as methodology. With this research methodology it will be possible, besides elaborating scenarios, to identify which ones will be more driving and dependent and how they will behave in the matrix of cross impacts. The greater the degree of dependence the greater the probability of occurrence to be influenced by the other events. With the above, this research seeks to understand and contextualize the Municipality of Marília SP in light of its more human planning, considering the participation of local social actors.